Large-deviation asymptotics for mean-field interacting systems
Ruoyu Wu · Mathematics, Iowa State University · ongoing
Large deviations sits underneath a good deal of learning theory. Sanov's
theorem and the Donsker–Varadhan variational formula for relative entropy
are the machinery behind PAC-Bayes generalization bounds and variational
mutual-information estimators. Freidlin–Wentzell small-noise theory is how
escape times from saddles and shallow basins are analyzed for SGD and for
Langevin-based optimizers. And the empirical-measure LDP for a mean-field
interacting particle system is structurally the same construction that sits
one level above the mean-field limit of wide-network training.
I work on rate functionals and the variational characterization of rare
events for the empirical measure
μtN=N1∑iδXti,N of such
a system, currently in the setting of load balancing. The object is a
large-deviation principle on path space; the rate functional then supplies
the change of measure for an importance-sampling estimator of rare events,
benchmarked against the analytic rate function by exact and Monte Carlo
numerics. The application domain is queueing, but the technique carries
well past it.
The results are held back until the preprint is out. What the figure below
shows instead is the mechanism the whole method rests on, on the one target
where the answer is known to machine precision.
Naive Monte Carlo does not merely get slow in this regime. It stops being an
estimator: it returns zero occurrences and no information about the magnitude.
Tilting the sampling law so the rare event becomes typical, then reweighting by
the likelihood ratio, recovers an answer, and the tilt has to come from
somewhere principled, because a badly chosen change of measure produces an
estimator with infinite variance that fails silently. In the Gaussian
case the right tilt is a mean shift and can be written down. In the mean-field
model it comes from the large-deviation rate function, and checking whether the
asymptotics have actually taken hold at the system sizes anyone simulates is
the part of the project I find most worth doing.